UK market view: Q2 2023

Data from the first quarter of the year has shown the UK economy to be holding up much better than previously forecast. As such, it is only right that we upgrade our tender price forecasts to reflect these developments. Our new 2023 forecast has increased from 2.5% to 3.0% in London and 3.5% elsewhere, while we have also nudged up our forecasts for the following two years.  

Recently, many organisations, including the IMF and Bank of England, have made sizeable positive adjustments to their GDP forecasts. HM Treasury, which compares many independent forecasts, now on average has GDP growing 0.2% this year compared to almost a 1% decline in January’s release.  

It needs remembering that this is still a terrible figure, and the economy is essentially flatlining, but that GDP shouldn’t now shrink this year is enough for us to revise our forecasts.  

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