UK market view: Q3 2024

The UK economy is slowly turning the corner, with conditions steadily improving. Backing up growth of 0.7% in Q1, GDP grew 0.6% in Q2, and the minor technical recession that happened at the end of 2023 is now a long way behind us.  

Nonetheless, the strength of the first half of the year shouldn’t be over-stated. The shine from GDP comes off quickly when looking at GDP per capita, which, despite growing 0.3% in the second quarter, is 0.1% lower than it was 12 months ago.  

Similarly, growth seems limited to business facing services. Manufacturing, construction, and consumer facing services all saw output decline in the second quarter. Given real incomes have been rising rapidly, the fall in consumer facing services is disappointing. If the economy is to continue to see robust growth in the second half of the year, consumers will have to play a more significant role.  

The most important change over the past three months is we now have a new government. In part, this report looks at how we might assess the Labour government, and the early signs are mixed.  

Download our full report for more.